Election update: Sanders hits his stride, Trump in decline
There isn’t a primary until next week, but this is probably the most important one. Next Tuesday, New Yorkers will be voting in their perspective local primaries, and much is on the line for both sides.
I. Bernie Sanders’ accomplishments need to be acknowledged.
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Bernie Sanders has won seven of the last eight contests, and Donald Trump hasn’t won anything since March 22nd. Trump’s poll numbers are going down, but New York will likely boost him back up.
One thing that isn’t being talked about much by anyone is that Bernie Sanders is now only one point behind Hillary Clinton in the latest national polls.
Sanders started this campaign at 4 percent, with Clinton having a 55 point lead. To anyone, regardless of party affiliation, this needs to be acknowledged as true feat of political organization.
When Clinton lost to Barack Obama in 2008, the rumor of Clinton running in 2016 already began. After Obama named her Secretary of State in his cabinet, she added another title to her resume for president. After she resigned in 2013, she had years to prepare a national campaign to be president.
Sanders started this campaign from virtually rock bottom. Now he is in a deadlock contest with arguably the most powerful, cunning and well-funded female politician in U.S. history. All while openly attesting to being a Democratic Socialist, Sanders isn’t accepting money from large corporate donors and completely funding his campaign off of individual donations.
Clinton has a double-digit lead in New York, but her numbers are going down more often than up. If Sanders has any chance of becoming the Democratic nominee, this contest should prove his biggest challenge.
II. Donald Trump’s numbers are down, but New York will probably save him.
Ted Cruz will have to pull off a miracle to even come in second in the New York primary next Tuesday. Trump has a dominating 30-point lead, and will likely win the vast majority of delegates because of the winner-take-most rule of the state. Unless the entire Republican party rallies behind Cruz or Kasich, there’s not a lot to stop Trump’s momentum.
A contested convention is virtually the only thing at this point that will stop Trump. Elections are unpredictable, however, and there is still the potential scandal that either leaks or emerges that Trump simply cannot spin.
After his “New York values” comment, New York will not be kind to Cruz. There are no more state caucuses, which normally favor him, so he will have to rely on his state-wide organization. He needs to find a way to either swing independent voters, or take some from either Trump or Kasich. He continues to talk about how the party is rallying behind him, yet he has barely any congressional endorsements.
The stage is set for Trump to become the Republican nominee. The Democratic race, however, is still not decided.
Opinion editor Anthony Torres is a political science junior and may be reached at [email protected]