Nina To / The Cougar
Open TikTok for five minutes and you’ll probably see creators promoting clothing, skin care, supplements or some other product. Lately, however, a different kind of advertisement has started taking over feeds, not for something you can buy, but for a company you can bet with.
Kalshi has hit the market on TikTok and Instagram, with many creators posting videos about how they made so much money from predictions on events such as the World Cup or NBA Finals. Sports betting isn’t anything new, even if Kalshi prefers to market itself as a “prediction market” rather than betting.
At their core, the two are the same thing; just because they are advertised as “predicting” rather than “betting” doesn’t make it any different. Whether it’s called betting or predicting, users still risk money on uncertain outcomes in the hope of making a profit. The branding may be different, but the mechanics are remarkably similar.
The World Cup has also become part of Kalshi’s marketing strategy, with advertisements appearing along stadium sidelines during matches. That visibility places the company in front of millions of viewers who may already be making casual predictions about which team will win.
What caught my eye and raised concern was that Kalshi began to appeal to a new audience. Not because they’re betting on a basketball or soccer game, but because they’re betting on “Love Island” outcomes and Taylor Swift’s wedding.
People are predicting who will be dumped from the Villa, which couples will make the finale and who will ultimately win the season. Others are even placing predictions on pop culture moments, including who will be Taylor Swift’s bridesmaids. It’s a shift that turns entertainment into another betting market.
Betting by another name
Kalshi has been around since 2018, operating much like other sports betting platforms. What has changed in recent years isn’t necessarily the platform itself, but how it’s being marketed.
Some promotions are obvious advertisements, while others are woven into everyday content. A creator might casually discuss who they think will be dumped from the Villa before mentioning they placed a prediction on Kalshi, making the promotion feel more like part of the conversation than a paid partnership.
The strategy appears to be working. During the first few weeks of “Love Island’s” latest season, predictions tied to the show generated more than $20 million in trading volume on Kalshi.
What makes this marketing strategy different is that it doesn’t feel like gambling. Most people associate betting with casinos, sportsbooks or fantasy leagues. Kalshi, instead, presents itself as another trend to participate in and another way to engage with your interests.
Gambling is already an addictive activity, with millions of Americans reporting problematic gambling behaviors. What makes platforms like Kalshi concerning isn’t simply that they allow users to wager money. It’s that they introduce gambling to audiences who may have never actively sought it out.
A new generation of gamblers
For years, gambling carried a certain stigma. It meant going to a casino, downloading a sportsbook or intentionally seeking out betting opportunities. Today’s prediction apps remove much of that barrier. Instead of asking users to become gamblers, they invite them to “play along” with the shows, sports and pop culture moments they’re already invested in.
That subtle shift matters. Younger generations have grown up with social media, where trends spread quickly and influencer recommendations often feel more like advice from a friend than an advertisement.
When betting is presented alongside reality television clips, sports highlights and viral content, it begins to feel less like gambling and more like another way to participate in the conversation.
The issue isn’t that someone places five dollars on a “Love Island” recoupling. It’s that gambling becomes increasingly normalized. Once predicting outcomes for entertainment becomes routine, wagering on a playoff game, an election or the stock market no longer feels like a significant step.
Every generation has been introduced to gambling in different ways. Previous generations were more likely to encounter it in casinos, racetracks or sportsbooks. Today’s generation is discovering it through TikTok, Instagram and influencer marketing.
Whether that’s a positive evolution or a troubling one remains up for debate. But one thing is clear: gambling is no longer waiting for people to seek it out. It’s appearing directly in their social media feeds, attached to the entertainment they already enjoy.
Of course, millions of people gamble responsibly, and prediction markets are legal in many states. The issue isn’t whether adults should be allowed to participate. It’s how these platforms are broadening the audience they’re designed to reach.
Kalshi may call itself a prediction market, but the activity remains the same. The company hasn’t changed what gambling is; it has changed who it reaches and how it gets there.
Opinion@thedailycougar.com
