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Thursday, November 15, 2018

Opinion

Election update: And then there were three


The first “winner-take-all” primaries are often the point where if there are any candidates who are not winning many states, it’s the best time to bow-out of the election because your hopes of being president are crushed.

I. Marco Rubio drops out of the race.

Marco Rubio was hailed the Republican establishment’s last hope for an electable candidate. He was also arguably the most popular choice among likely Republican voters, and polled especially well with young Republicans. Generally perceived as the best alternative over Cruz to beat Donald Trump, but he was destroyed by Trump in his own state of Florida. John Kasich did on Tuesday what Rubio was supposed to do: win your home state. If you cannot win your home state in a primary, your chances of winning it in the general election are meek. But don’t see this as the end of Marco Rubio. He’s young and has a bright political future ahead of him. He just needs to gather his bearings and figure out the direction he wants to take going forward.

II. Republicans will likely fight it out for the next few months.

It’s now down to three: a demagogue, an ideologue and an optimist. With still so many delegates to fight over, Trump, Cruz and Kasich will likely continue fighting until June or July. Many say Kasich has no chance of becoming the nominee, but there are some reasons why he still has a shot. For one, there are virtually no more evangelical states that would likely go for Trump or Cruz. Many of the upcoming states have winner-take-all or winner-take-most rules, and some of these states lean a little more to the left. Nevertheless, it’s clear that voters are angry at the Republican party and they are making it loud and clear that they want someone in the White House who will completely shake up the political leadership.

III. Clinton scores big. Again.

Hillary Clinton has had a consistent streak of wins across the U.S., and a Bernie Sanders presidency is slowly becoming less and less likely. If the Vermont Senator is going to gain the nomination at this point, he will not only need to win most of the coming primaries, he’ll need to win them by large margins. Coming in a close second is good, but the victor always gains more delegates. He has gained a foothold in the election, but in the end, Clinton’s delegate count is now almost double what Sanders’ is, and there’s not much evidence that this pattern will change much. This isn’t to say that Clinton definitely has the nomination secured. Elections can be unpredictable, and if there’s anything that can be said about this year’s presidential race, it’s that not much has been met in the realm of expectations.

Opinion editor Anthony Torres is a political science junior and may be reached at [email protected]

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