On Friday, the United States and Jordan signed a treaty for the "development of peaceful nuclear energy resources" in accordance with the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.
On Monday, the French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner threatened the use of force against Iran if the Islamic republic does not halt its enrichment of uranium and open up its nuclear facilities.
On Wednesday, Israel declared the Gaza Strip an "enemy entity" and will decide in coming days to send in ground troops and launch a full air assault.
These three events, all seemingly different and unconnected, bespeaks of the brewing tensions in the Middle East that are quickly reaching the breaking point. In response to the threats made by France, Iranian officials threatened the United States, saying, "any attack upon Iran will be met with an attack on American interests in the region."
The Iranian regime feels that the new French government is being forced to say these things because of pressure from the United States. To add to the problems, Iran also stated it had drafted plans to bomb Israeli cities if there was an attack against Iran. Israel is currently the United States’ strongest supporter in the region and takes the view that diplomatic measures to stop Iran will not work.
With Jordan now becoming a regional nuclear power, the threat of nuclear war in the Middle East becomes even more probable. Jordan, a Sunni nation, has strong ties to the West and is one of two Arab nations that has peace treaties with Israel, another regional nuclear power. It could be seen by some that the U.S.’ attempt at helping Jordan achieve nuclear power would be seen as bolstering the Sunni side of a long fight within the Islamic world between Shiites and Sunnis. Other nations in the region, such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the Gulf Arab states, are worried over Iran’s nuclear ambitions, fearing they could spark war between the Shiite state and the rest of the Sunni world.
The declaring of the Gaza Strip as an "enemy entity" does two things; first, it gives Israel the legal precedent to enter the strip with military force and stop the waves of rocket attacks that are launched from Gaza into southern Israeli towns (most notably, Sderot). It also divides the Palestinian territories into two separate "entities" which can hinder any peace deals that might be reached in the upcoming meetings between Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.
If Israel invades the Gaza Strip to stop attacks from there, the threat from Iran becomes an existential risk Israel cannot afford to take.
Divided on three fronts, the Jewish state would face its greatest threat to its existence since the Yom Kippur War in 1973. Also, if European nations and the U.S. attack Iran, they would not be able to rely on Israel’s superior air force to lead attacks against the Islamic republic.
In this world that is so dependent on oil, all these factors point to one unavoidable event: the sharp rise in the cost of oil and shortages around the world. Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, the busiest strait used for exports of oil. If Iran is attacked, they could and most likely would place mines in the strait and cut off oil exports through it. Iran has stated they would use any means necessary to fight against the United States, and that includes closing the strait and attacking U.S. bases in the Gulf Arab states.
We can only hope that all these recent events and the threats from Iran are nothing more then the rumblings of a nation worried that its time as a threat to the security of the world are over. As long as the status quo is held and the United States continues to strive for a diplomatic solution to the problem of Iranian enrichment, we can only hope that nothing else sparks off a war we are not ready to fight.
Clancy, a political science senior, can be reached via [email protected]
