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UH profs weigh in on unpredictable primary

Arizona Sen. John McCain has the foreign policy experience, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton has the name and support of a former president, Sen. Barack Obama has the allure of a young politician and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has loads of cash.

Despite the promises each candidate is making, none of them have enough support to secure their respective party’s nomination for the 2008 presidential election in November, according to polls by The Associated Press and CNN.com.

On Super Tuesday, Americans may have a better idea of who the top contenders will be when citizens from 24 states and American Samoa will decide the winner of their respective primaries or caucuses.

"It is pretty amazing how open the race still is," political science assistant professor Elizabeth Rigby said. "Both the Democrats and Republicans seem truly divided, or conflicted, regarding which candidate they prefer. I am eager to see what the voters do on Super Tuesday."

McCain and Romney are leading in the polls according to CNN.com, while Clinton and Obama, the two remaining Democrats, will have their chance to gain some separation tonight. Texas won’t hold its primary until March 4.

The race for the Democratic Party’s nomination became more competitive between Clinton, 60, and Obama, the youngest candidate at age 46, when Sen. John Edwards, 54, withdrew from the race Wednesday.

Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Texas Rep. Ron Paul remain in the Republican race along with McCain and Romney. Former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani withdrew from the race Wednesday, but announced he will back McCain.

Clinton, who is accompanied on the campaign trail by her husband, former president Bill Clinton, holds a 232-158 lead in delegates over Obama, according to CNN.com. Her latest win came in the Florida primary Wednesday, but it was largely symbolic because the Democratic National Committee stripped Florida of its delegates for violating party rules by moving up the date of its primary.

Clinton appears to be in good position, according to the CNN.com poll, but will face tough competition from Obama who is planning to air commercials in 22 states, the Baltimore Sun reported.

"(Clinton) is seeing her substantial lead erode," political science professor Richard W. Murray said. "Clinton needs to end the race quickly. The lay of the land favors Obama after Tuesday."

According to CNN.com, McCain leads the Republican hopefuls with 97 delegates but is lagging behind Romney, who has 92 delegates, in campaign funds.

The Washington Post reported Friday that McCain had to take out a life insurance policy to secure a $3 million line of credit that lifted his campaign out of debt.

Romney, a former capital investor worth nearly $250 million, contributed $35 million of his personal wealth to his campaign, the AP reported Friday.

Political science adjunct professor Tim Howard said he thinks that McCain’s foreign policy and military experience could pose a greater threat to his chances.

"McCain has less money, is less traditionally Republican, but has more foreign experience by far," Howard said. "But, the presidential candidate with the most foreign policy or military experience has lost every single race since 1980 with the sole exception of 1988, and that was only because the (Michael) Dukakis campaign imploded."

CNN.com lists Huckabee third among Republican hopefuls with 29 delegates, and Paul brings up the rear with six. Huckabee hasn’t won a state since the Iowa caucus on Jan. 3.

Howard said he doesn’t have any money riding on these two candidates winning the nomination.

"If I had to bet on Super Tuesday, I’m betting Romney and Obama, but would in no way be surprised if I were wrong on both counts," he said.

Additional reporting by Jeremiah Guillory, Johnny Rigg and Nicole Vaiana

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