The most reliable barometer this season for the Cougars’ success has been their shooting percentage.
That may seem too simplistic, but it’s shown to be eerily reliable.
When the Cougars shoot the ball at least 40 percent, they win. When the Cougars shoot below 40 percent, they usually lose. In eight of their 12 losses, the Cougars have shot below 40 percent from the floor.
In the four losses when they shot at least 40 percent, the other team shot at least 48 percent, and that’s going to happen on occasion. Three of those teams, Nevada, Louisiana Tech and Memphis, are also legitimately better than UH.
In 12 of their 13 victories, the Cougars have shot 43 percent or better overall. They shot only 32 percent in their other win, but that’s because they made 18 of 20 free-throw attempts.
The Cougars have some reasons to account for their erratic shooting. They don’t have a dominating low-post presence, which makes it hard for them to score in the paint.
The closer you get to the basket, the higher percentage shot you’ll get. That goes for Kobe Bryant or Rony Seikaly.
Fortunately, the Cougars have two talented guards in Kelvin Lewis and Aubrey Coleman. The trend for the Cougars is to allow Coleman and Lewis to roam freely, with Coleman usually taking the lead.
Sometimes that works because Coleman and Lewis are streaky shooters who can get on a roll. Sometimes that doesn’t work because they aren’t shooting well, and even if they are, it’s not difficult for teams to double both players.
When that happens, Coleman and Lewis don’t trust their supporting cast and tend to force up low-percentage shots.
The result? Too many contested long jumpers, no passing to open teammates, no attempts at penetrating to the basket, no chance of getting to the foul line and no chance of consistently creating quality shots.
Teams that struggle to get good looks at the basket don’t shoot the ball at a high percentage. That, too often, has been the Cougars’ downfall.
There’s no denying that Coleman and Lewis are talented players, but they’re not going to combine for 100 points — or even score 20 points individually — every night. Either find better ways to score, or help recruit a better supporting cast.
Even the legendary Michael Jordan needed help once in a while.
